Grasping at Straws

---anyone pointing to the current move in the US to a vertical power structure in a Rule of Men State is Grasping at Straws? Not.

The specific comment from my Conservative friend and academic economist colleague was: “I think this is mostly grasping at straws.” It was a comment stirred by my pointing to David Brooks in The Atlantic “I Should Have Seen This Coming” (see https://substack.com/home/post/p-161194031 ) which suggests President Trump is all in on a power grab, building a vertical power patrimonialism. The Rule of Law built on the foundation of the US Constitution is being pushed to the extreme, if not in effect completely ignored. Brooks admits to missing the possibility that it might occur here in the US. Brooks missed the ability of the loyalists on the fringe right-wing --- not reasoned Conservatives of old --- to drive the move to power and building a Rule of Men started in 2016, and returned with even more vengeance in 2024.

The same Conservative colleague commented: “Democrats deserve most of the credit for Trump being an office now, not republican loyalists.” But, to keep balance here, another economist colleague said a few days after the November 5, 2024 election: “The fasciste have arrived” with loyalists playing a key role in bringing the fasciste into power. Am afraid the latter colleague is closer to the reality.

Democrats Did Frame the 2024 Campaign Arguing for the Rule of Law Based Democracy

And, on the Democrats: Well, the 2024 Campaign was actually framed on maintaining a Democracy based in the Rule of Law in the US tradition going back to installing the 1787 Constitution, so, not sure why that was a losing proposition. And, the notion that the “Dems Destroyed the Economy” is an Emperor has no clothes claim: The US Economy was the envy of all Travelers on the Spaceship Earth as noted by the World Bank who reported the Gross Domestic Product(GDP), the Income(GDP)/capita/day at $224, the highest in the world by the time the economy was brought back into play in 2023. The rebuild was accomplished by 2023-2024, with many more plans already in motion to be implemented during Harris-Walz Administration, recovering from the disaster left behind in 2020. So, what is going on? This MetaEcon is stirred to counter the claim that people concerned about the move toward the Rule of Men are “grasping for straws” and that “Dems deserve credit for Trump winning the election” but rather agree that “the fasciste have arrived” to build a vertical power Rule of Men, and, here it goes.

Patrimonialism Describes the Historical Rule of Men: The Modern Form in Neo-Patrimonialism is Back

The vertical power, hierarchical form of Government was around in the pre-Enlightenment 1500-1600s (and for all time before) era. It came to be called Patrimonialism, named by the famous Sociologist Max Weber. In modern terms is referred to as the Rule of Men State (after Political Scientists --- who are Sovietologists, experts in Soviet Political Systems --- Hanson and Kopstein 2024; see the Book Review: Global Attack on Modern Government https://substack.com/home/post/p-159779158 ) . The most prominent, modern version of what might be referred to as a Neo-Patrimony is Putin-Russia, and Orban-Hungary. It has also appeared in many other places like Erdogan-Turkey, Milei-Argentina, and even in the formerly mainly Rule of Law States like in Netanyahu-Israel, and, yes, even in Johnson-Swarmer-UK leading to the move out of the European Union.

In the case of Russia and Hungary, both of said states either never had a well-developed Rule of Law State (e.g., lacking in well-developed private property law) which was true in Russia --- or a somewhat well-developed Rule of Law based democracy has been eroded as in Orban-Hungary. Will the extremely well-developed Rule of Law system in the US, built on the Foundation of the arguably most well-structured Constitution ever put into place on the Spaceship, survive the assault and attack underway? The US Rule of Law State also includes not only thousands of federal laws as well as state and local laws, but also millions of attorneys, thousands of judges, and, don’t forget the legal scholars in the Universities and think tanks. Will it hold? Well, we are not grasping at straws to be asking and watching.

Mafia Styled Organizations are Patrimonial in Structure and Operation

Brooks has also alluded to the notion of a mafia styled state with a gangsters’ flavor to what Trump is doing (see the Brooks and Capehart transcript from April 11 (seehttps://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/brooks-and-capehart-on-trumps-tariffs-and-reaction-from-the-markets ). It is like “the Godfather”, “the Don” at the top --- as the WSJ article referred to it, “the Daddy” at the top --- of a vertical power system of loyalists, with competence optional. See Nanny State Replaced by Daddy State https://substack.com/home/post/p-160909901 ). Also, Brooks has referred to the gangster analogy before, as though the Spaceship Earth is being divided up into “the Godfather” type States. It also a frame that has been used by Anne Applebaum in pointing to the Autocracies with “the Man” at the top coming into play all over the Spaceship. Kasparov (2025), who knows Russia well, also warns Americans to be aware of the similarities between “the Putin” and “the Don.” Also, Former Trump Staff Members Liken His Actions to Those of ‘Royal Despot’ . Assaults and attacks on any and all opposition points to the Rule of Men styled organization of vertical power which depends on absolute loyalty.

It is Not Grasping at Straws in Pointing to the Rule of Men State

The kind of training and experience behind Metaeconomics and built into the framing of The Metaeconomic Order is about finding empirical evidence. The following uses Metaeconomics as the empirically tested Humanomics with Dual Interest Theory (DIT ) in the core of it, an economics about the Human and the ethic within, which as a result:

1. Gives an ability to also look at the political scene with an empirical rather than an ideological and/or theological eye, especially the political economic scene, with said empirical eyes looking especially for the patterns (systems analysis). Also, one idea saved from traditional economics: Revealed preferences are watched.

2. Puts every ideology and theology into empirical test: If it fails the test, move-on. Also, as an economist, one needs to understand that mainstream economics is in the main a political technology in disguise. So, using it to justify some ideology, well, if it is an ideology itself, the justification is at best circular. Collect data. Test the null hy hypotheses. Reject the ideology and theology if it does not stand the test. Progressively move forward, not backward.

3. Ensures one is not grasping at straws. Empirical test comes out of serious and systematic inquiry using science & humanities (human science, especially ethics).

4. Suggests the pattern represented in the revealed preference especially since January 20, 2025 point to a Rule of Men State being built. It seems the Complicit Conservatives are all in (for starters, see the details relating to the now almost 300 Executive Orders that have appeared since January 20 … https://www.metaeconomics.info/post/the-assault-on-the-deep-state and, then, just watch the news, everyday ).

5. Makes clear the Rule of Law State resting on the 1787 Constitution is under assault and attack, unprecedented in US History. Many legal scholars are pointing to the emerging Constitutional Crisis.

6. Sees the 197 lawsuits (and, number is growing everyda, using the Rule of Law to in effect counter the Rule of Men) filed against “the Don and loyalists” since January 20, 2025 as indicators of an attack on the Rule of Law (so obviously not disconnected from the DOGE assault on the Agencies which stirred many of the Lawsuits see https://substack.com/home/post/p-161040756 ) . The violation of the Rule of Law starting with the Big Lie Stolen 2020 Election gets things rolling, and the attack on Rule of Law represented has not subsided. In fact, it is leading to a Dual Law System/State --- see https://substack.com/home/post/p-160007706 ), which is always a prominent feature of the Rule of Men State. Prerogative Law governs the loyalists in the vertical power structure, at the prerogative of “the Man” at the top, while everyone else is left-out of the privileges of said system, but must remain bound to the Normal Law system. Prerogative Law protects the Rule of Men from any opposition.

7. Suggests it is the Complicit Conservatives who are truly grasping at straws to overlook the Regime Change being attempted, especially the move to a Dual Law System. Hopefully the Courts – the 1700+ Federal Judges -- will hold, as the Complicit Republican Congress keeps looking the other way. Complicit Republicans in general are the ones grasping at straws everyday as though “the Don” is taking legitimate actions consistent with The Rule of Law built on the Constitution. Not.

8. Makes clear it was not in the main a failure by the Democrats that put the Republicans back into power: “Democrats deserve most of the credit for Trump being an (in) office now, not republican loyalists.” Not. The fundamental cause goes back to The Neoliberal Order 1970-2008, which caused Extreme Inequality and Resentment in the Middle-Class (for starters, see https://www.metaeconomics.info/post/the-two-roads-to-serfdom and https://www.metaeconomics.info/post/what-comes-next ). So, predictably, someone always arrives to fix the Resentment — as happened in about 2014, right before the 2016 Election — promising to fix it all, just vote for me, “the Man” who can do it all. And, then, predictably the outrageous claims start. No one Man can fix everything as was promised. And, by the 2024 Election, it was becoming ever clearer that Big Lie Political Technology (BLPT, used by Putin and every other Rule of Men State system, Trump and Putin now even using the same BL about Ukraine) was being purposely applied. It started with the claims of Fake News Legitimate News Organizations, and it quickly moved to Big Lie Stolen 2020 Election which set the stage: Fully 73% of Trump voters in the 2024 Election believe the Big Lie Stolen 2020 Election (see Jacobson 2023). BLPT worked with a heavy influence on the outcome of the 2024 Election. And in support of not grasping for straws, a well-research recent book by legal scholar McQuade (2024, p. 26) makes clear: “It is not an overstatement to say that disinformation threatens to destroy the United States as we know it.” And, it is well-documented by both Political Science and Disinformation Research experts that the disinformation (as in BLPT used to win the 2024 Election) is mainly coming from an extreme right-wing part of the heretofore Conservative party. That is not grasping at straws.

9. Suggests with growing support that using BLPT --- which is inherently unethical --- was used to elect what may well prove to be the most unethical President the US has ever so elected. Indicator? The lack of empathy demonstrated in the attack on people who are not the “us.” The ethic is empathy-based, and without the capacity for empathy, the unethical frames every action. And, as Adam Smith tried to teach, the economists especially should know better: A political economy lacking in empathy-based ethics (the Moral Sentiment) can never achieve the true Wealth of the Nation. It was an Ethical frame that led to the Great Enrichment (again, see the McCloskey trilogy, and the Review of it in Lynne In Press, all pointing to how said Ethic came from being in Empathy-with going every direction), with said Ethical frame only possible in a Rule of Law System.

10. Suggests Trump-America just like Putin-Russia and Orban-Hungary will never achieve the True Wealth of the Nation. Just watch the numbers: Biden-Harris-Walz framed empathy-with economy (empathy-based Ethic tempering arrogant ego-based Incentive, like in the original New Deal Order) produced $224/capita/day in 2023. It came from bringing empathy-with back into play, like checks to replace income lost because of the Pandemic, after fixing the disastrous Covid management plan that crashed the Trump economy in 2020. Biden brought empathy-back into play by restoring parts of the New Deal Order 1930-1980 --- especially with the empathy-based income-replacing checks, but also in support for labor unions, investing in infrastructure, and helping stir investment in computer chip manufacturing --- fixing the ego-based Trump 2020 disaster.

11. Points to GDP/capita/day likely decreasing, in that for the same year, 2023, the Rule of Men States (always short on empathy-with everyone other than the “us”) of Putin-Russa $38; Orban-Hungary $61; Milei-Argentina (modeled on Project 2025) $39, and, throw in the Rule of Men with a communist twist in Xi-China $35. And, being Project 2025 is imposing theology on the system, throw in some theocracies for good measure like total lack of empathy-with women (misogyny on steroids) as in Akundzada-Afghanistan $1 and, lack of empathy with anyone not loyalists to the religious fundamentalists in Khamenei-Iran $12.

12. Makes clear that Rule of Men States --- whether ideological and/or theological in form --- always perform badly on the economic front because of the unethical nature of such states, and, it is not new news: Adam Smith intuitively understood it was the joint effort in Wealth & Sentiment. Inherently Unethical Rule of Men States have little to no Moral Sentiments in play, running strictly on the arrogance of self-interest like does “the Don” --- often shored-up by a narrowly shared other interest of the “us.” As Adam Smith made clear, and modern behavioral/neuroscience and humanities based ethics (like Rawls and Smith empathy-with ethics) supports, Smith got it correct. So, reasoned balance brought by Biden-Harris-Walz (and it was getting better) in Wealth and Sentiment produced 2023 GDP/capita/day $224 à $61 (CPAC Conservatives love Orban) as Empathy/Sentiment is stripped out. Trashing the public good by the assault on the Agencies is part of it. Ignoring the empathy-based Rule of Law (the Constitution is framed by empathy-with all people) in how the “them” are being treated, as in an evolving Dual Law System with one for “us (to serve “the Don”) and one for “them (anyone opposing “the Don”). Biden-Harris-Walz never would have chosen that trajectory. And, that is not grasping at straws.

So, What Think? Who is Grasping at Straws?

The following response to the “what think” question reflects some help from ChatGPT 4o, the latest version. I proposed to ChatGPT that on the matter of the Rule of Law vs. Rule of Men, it seems reasonable to argue if someone accuses the analyst of “grasping at straws” when the analysis is grounded in solid data, careful reasoning, and scientific testing, it seemingly flips the critique back onto the accuser. ChatGPT supported the claim, and then added:

What the evidence shows:

• Institutions like the DOJ, FBI, and courts have been under pressure to selectively apply or ignore laws.

• Efforts to undermine election results, defy subpoenas, and stack courts raise alarm bells.

• Project 2025 openly advocates replacing career civil servants with loyal political appointees—an affront to impartial rule of law.

How some defenders respond:

• Critics of these moves are dismissed as “grasping for straws,” "alarmists," or “radical leftists.”

• Claims like “weaponization of the DOJ” are often projection: accusing opponents of the very thing their side is doing.

What’s really happening:

• The accusation of grasping is a form of gaslighting—meant to discredit critics who are actually sounding the alarm based on Constitutional norms and precedent.

• It’s a rhetorical weapon to confuse or shut down legitimate critique.

DIT lens (Note: ChatGPT knows about Dual Interest Theory – DIT – in Metaeconomics )

• True Rule of Law depends on shared moral norms—internalized rules that constrain self-interest (what Adam Smith called the impartial spectator).

• The Rule of Men replaces that with raw ego, loyalty demands, and patronage—a clear break from the empathy-with-the-other ethic at the heart of DIT and constitutional democracy.

Final Takeaway:

In all these domains, when someone accuses another of “grasping for straws” despite solid evidence, it’s often:

• A psychological defense against truth,

• A tactic of distraction, and

• A signal of ideology overpowering inquiry.

The real grasping? It’s being done by those unwilling to revise their views in light of inconvenient evidence.

That’s precisely what the scientific method, DIT, and responsible citizenship are designed to overcome.

References

Jacobson, Gary C. 2023. "The Dimensions, Origins, and Consequences of Belief in Donald Trump's Big Lie." Political Science Quarterly 138 (2): 133-166.

Lynne, Gary D. In Press. “Cargo-Cult Economics to Metaeconomics: Toward a Humanomics with a Theory.” Review of Behavioral Economics.

McCloskey, Deirdre N. 2006. The Bourgeois Virtues: Ethics for An Age of Commerce. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

McCloskey, Deidre Nansen. 2010. Bourgeois Dignity: Why Economics Can't Explain the Modern World. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

McCloskey, Deidre Nansen. 2016. Bourgeois Equality: How Ideas, Not Capital or Institutions, Enriched the World. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

McQuade, Barbara. 2024. Attack from Within: How Disinformation Is Sabotaging America. New York: Seven Stories Press.